译者 王为
When it MakesSense to Transact in Bitcoin
By Peter St Onge
The value of cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, just like any other kind of money, comes fundamentally from what you can do with it. As a follow up to What Backs Bitcoin, I want to dig into that value.
像其他所有货币一样,比特币之类的虚拟货币最根本的价值来自于人们能用它来做什么。接前文“比特币的价值从何而来?”，今天要探讨的是比特币的价值体现在什么地方。
The idea, which comes from Austrian economist Carl Menger, is that just as a shovel’s value comes from its ability to dig, a currency’s value comes from its ability to help you do two things: transactions, and savings.
奥地利经济学家Carl Menger认为，就像一把铲子的价值来自于能挖地，一种货币的价值来自于该货币能帮助人们完成两件事：交易支付和储蓄，即发挥支付手段和储藏手段的职能。
Think of transactions as the money you carry in your wallet or checking account, and savings as the rest of what you have in the bank or buried in the yard. It’s worth mentioning here that that vast majority of money demand is indeed savings, making up 90% or more of all money demand.
这么想吧，交易支付就是钱包里或支票帐户中随时准备支付出去的钱，储蓄就是银行帐户中没动用的或埋在后院里的钱。这里要重点说明一下，绝大部分的货币需求其实是来自储蓄，储蓄占了全部货币需求中的九成甚至更高。
The reason this matters is because if we know what transactions cryptocurrencies are good at, we can estimate how much money demand they’ll start pulling from fiat or gold, and therefore how much those cryptos will increase in price.
为啥说这一点很重要，因为如果知道虚拟货币适用于何种交易，就能估算出来有多少货币需求正在脱离法定货币体系或黄金，进而搞清楚虚拟货币的价格会涨到什么程度。
For transactions, some features that matter are cost and speed of transaction, anonymity, reversibility, counter-party risk, regulatory treatment. For savings demand, those factors are overwhelmed by the specific question of how well the currency keeps its price.
在交易需求方面，一个货币是否具有交易成本低、交易速度快、匿名性、可逆性、交易对手风险以及合规要求等特性是至关重要的。对于储蓄需求来讲，更重要的是该货币是否能够保值。
Supply and demand determine price — Always
供求关系决定价格是颠扑不破的真理
Price, as always in economics, is simply a matter of demand and supply. When demand is rising faster than supply, the currency will go up in price. And if demand is rising slower than supply, price will go down.
在经济学中，价格永远都只是供求关系的产物。当需求增长的速度快于供给，货币价值上涨；如果需求增长的速度慢于供给，货币价值下降。
Since bitcoin was born in 2009, it has generally enjoyed demand rising much faster than supply, hence price has soared. While the US dollar, say, has gone down — has “price inflated” — because demand failed to keep up with dollar creation.
自2009年比特币横空出世以来，对比特币的需求总是超过比特币的供给，因此比特币的价格一路飙升。而美元的价值则在一路下跌，即“价值充水”了，因为对美元的需求赶不上美元发行的速度。
Those are the features, now what are the applications: what are people using money for?
以上谈的都是货币的特性，下面来谈谈货币的应用：货币能用来干啥？
When we’re looking at a currency’s price, because we’re looking at total demand we don’t care about the number of transactions rather the total amount transacted.
在探讨货币价值的时候，由于我们关注的是对货币的总需求，故只看交易的总金额，而不管交易的笔数。
And here, the vast majority of money moving around in the economy is not goods and services — buying a cup of coffee, or a plane ticket — rather financial movements. Paying salaries, buying and selling stocks or bonds, investments and dividends. These occur mostly by bank transfer, which account for 80% of all money moved in the US. Another 15% goes by check, leaving just 3% for credit or debit cards, and 4% for paper cash.
但是，实体经济中绝大多数的流通货币并不是用于购买商品和服务，比如买咖啡或买飞机票，而是用于与金融有关的交易。支付薪水，买卖股票或债券，用于投资和分红等。这些交易大多通过银行账户转帐来完成，美国全部流通货币中的80%走的是银行转帐，还有15%通过支票转帐，只有3%用信用卡结算，还有4%用现金完成。
Bitcoin still under 0.01% of global transactions
比特币占全球支付交易的比率尚不足0.01%
A final part of the puzzle, what’s the competition to cryptocurrencies? Most money payments worldwide are, of course, denominated in fiat currency like dollars or yen — about 99% by amount. With the remaining 1% made in gold.
来揭开最后一个谜底，虚拟货币面临的挑战是什么？全球支付交易中的绝大部分当然还是通过美元或日元这样的法定货币完成的，比率大约是99%，剩下1%是用黄金进行结算。
Note that fiat has both physical and electronic forms, such as credit cards and bank transfers. Even gold payments can be made with paper rather than physically moving the gold, including gold-based securities that trade in financial markets (so-called “paper gold”).
要强调的是法定货币的存在方式包括实体货币和电子货币，电子货币包括信用卡和银行帐户转帐。即使是黄金的支付也可以通过纸面方式进行而不必交割黄金实物，其中也包括在金融市场中挂牌交易的以黄金为标的物的证券，如所谓的“纸黄金”。
Now we’re ready to go through those features for each currency. On cost and speed of transaction, bitcoin’s fees nowadays average about $1, and don’t vary by amount you transfer.
下面来比较一下每一种货币的各种特性。在支付交易的费用和速率方面，当前每笔比特币支付交易的平均成本约折合1美元，这个成本是固定的，不会因为某些交易单笔金额很大就上调。
You can send 1 bitcoin, worth $5,000, or 1,000 bitcoins, worth $5 million, and the fees are still a dollar. In contrast, banks typically charge a percentage of the transaction, which adds up on million-dollar transfers. Meanwhile, on speed bitcoin is much faster than banks; between 10 minutes and an hour to confirm a transaction, while banks take days.
不管转帐1个比特币，价值5,000美元；还是转帐1000个比特币，价值5,000,000美元，单笔转帐成本都是1美元。与此相反的是，银行通常会根据每笔转账金额的大小收取一定比率的转账手续费，如单笔转帐金额达到1,000,000美元，费率还要提高。还有就是，比特币转帐的速度比银行转账快得多，少则10分钟最多1小时就可以确认交易是否完成，而银行则需要数日。
So bitcoin beats on the most important application of money: financial transfers. The one caveat here is exchange costs. Just as you pay fees and spreads when you exchange your dollars for yen, every time you convert dollars into bitcoin you’ve got to pay fees and spreads.
因此，比特币在最主要的货币应用场景——金融转帐支付中脱颖而出。来个友情提示：兑换成本。就像把美元换成日元需要承担交易手续费和外汇买卖点差一样，任何一笔把美元换成比特币的交易也需要支付交易手续费和买卖点差。
This means that bitcoin’s low fees only really dominate if both the sender and receiver are keeping the money in bitcoin.
这就意味着，比特币转帐的低成本优势只有当转帐的发起方和接受方均接受比特币的情况下才能充分发挥出来。
Bitcoin’s exchange rate woes
比特币的兑换成本是个难题
On the other hand, if you have a bunch of dollars and want to buy a house from somebody who likes to keep dollars in the bank, then you’ll have to convert your dollars into bitcoin, send the bitcoin for a buck, then the other guy converts the bitcoins into dollars again. You saved on the transfer itself, but you had to exchange the money twice.
但另一方面，假设你攥着一把美元想从某人手里买一栋房子，而卖家打算把卖房款以美元形式存在银行里，如果你选择用比特币作为转帐的货币，这就涉及到美元和比特币之间的兑换了，你得先把美元换成比特币，再花一个美元的成本把比特币转帐给房屋的卖家，原房主把收到的比特币再换成美元。相对于直接用美元转帐的成本，比特币的转帐成本是节省了一些，但在交易的全过程中需要进行两次兑换。
So, bitcoin as a technology is superior for the main type of transaction by value, but in reality that advantage is eroded if people are keeping their wealth in fiat. This isn’t really a flaw of cryptocurrencies per se, it’s just a standard penalty suffered by any minority currency — having to pay for conversion into the dominant currency.
因此，技术层面上比特币是比主流的转帐交易方式更具优势，但在实际操作中，如果人们还是愿意将资产和财富以法定货币的形式保存起来，比特币的技术优势就大大削弱了。这个缺陷确实不是虚拟货币本身造成的，而是任何一种非主流的货币都逃不掉的宿命，为了将非主流货币转换成具有主流地位的货币而不得不“上贡”。
To finish up on cost and speed, obviously physical cash or physical gold are fantastic on both cost and speed, but only if buyer and seller are touching each other. Given paper cash has only a 4% share today, touchable buyers and sellers is a very small part of demand.
就支付交易的成本和速度而言，显然使用现金或实物黄金成本更低也更便捷，但这种方式只有在交易双方能直接接触的情况下才能采用。当今纸币交易量只占全球支付结算总量的4%，因此能够面对面直接接触的买卖双方所贡献的货币需求是相当有限的。
For remote orders, then, bitcoin carries lower fees than credit and debit cards, but again with that double-exchange problem unless both buyer and seller are staying in bitcoin.
对于交易对手互不接触的远距离支付交易来讲，比特币的支付结算成本要低于信用卡和借记卡，但还是会遇到双重兑换的问题，除非交易对手双边都愿意直接接受比特币。
Bitcoin’s potential to outperform
比特币有望超越传统货币的地方
Next up are some secondary benefits: anonymity, reversibility, counter-party risk, regulatory treatment.
下面要谈的货币特性相较以上就没那么重要了，比如交易的匿名性，可逆性，交易对手风险和合规要求。
Briefly, bitcoin is nearly anonymous unless the US government cares enough about you to put some serious people on you. In this sense it’s essentially like using cash, but with the advantage you can use it over long distances with those low fees.
简单的讲就是，比特币的交易和结算近乎完全匿名的，除非你因为啥事被美国政府盯上了，那你不管干什么都逃不掉山姆大叔的暗中凝视。从匿名性的角度出发，使用比特币实际上与用现金没啥区别，但好处是用比特币可以低成本地与无法谋面的对手进行支付交易。
In practice, the closest alternative is probably a pre-paid debit card that you buy at 7/11, which can cost several dollars in addition to the merchant fees, and isn’t going to work for large amounts nor overseas.
实际操作中，与比特币最相近的应该是在7/11之类连锁便利店出售的预付费借记卡，用来结算的话一般需要在结算手续费之外再多花几个美元，且没法用于单笔金额非常大的交易或者与海外交易对手之间的交易。
As for reversibility, the question is whether the buyer can cancel his payment. A problem for online vendors who get scammed by people who buy the product, get it in the mail, cancel the order and keep the goodies.
至于交易的可逆性，关键在于买家是否可以取消付款，对于在线商家来讲这是个问题，比如有人先下单，收到商家寄出的商品后再取消订单，东西却不退了。
Credit card companies or Paypal famously always side with the customer, which can suck for the honest vendor getting ripped off online. Bitcoin, again like cash, is irreversible once it’s confirmed — so about 10 minutes to an hour. That’s slower than cash, but faster than Paypal or credit cards where buyers can reverse months later.
信用卡公司或者Paypal素以袒护自家客户而“闻名遐迩”，总是偏向自家客户从老实的在线商家那里揩油。比特币又一次展示出了与现金相似的一面，以比特币为媒介的支付交易一般耗时10分钟至1小时之间，一旦落地就无法逆转。结算时长虽然超过现金交易，但比Paypal或信用卡快，后两种结算方式都可以让买家在几个月后反悔。
Fourth characteristic is counter-party risk; the idea that your bank could go under, taking your money with it. Remember bitcoin was invented in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, where bank failures were common.
第四个特性就是交易对手风险，也就是你的开户行一旦玩完，你的钱就没了。别忘了比特币诞生于2008年金融危机之后，那会儿银行倒闭可是家常便饭。
Because bitcoin is distributed across many computers and isn’t managed by a central organization, it has no single point of failure. On the other hand, cryptocurrencies do still have potential technical glitches that probably more than make up for that risk.
由于比特币的分发是通过很多计算机一起完成的，没有一个中心组织掌控全局，也就没有一点陷落全局俱损的可能了。但另一方面，虚拟货币也确实有可能遭遇技术故障导致这一优势变得毫无意义。
Regulation: not if but when
监管不是有没有的问题而是何时到来的问题
Finally, regulatory treatment. This is where we’ll probably see a lot of change over the next couple years, as governments digest cryptocurrencies like bitcoin.
最后是监管。未来几年，随着政府对比特币等虚拟货币的了解逐渐加深，对比特币的监管会出现重大变化。
So far cryptos have enjoyed mostly benign neglect from regulators; tolerated, neither discouraged nor encouraged. On the bright side this has meant little regulatory burdens or fees, although this is changing in places like New York.
到目前为止，在监管当局既不鼓励也不反对而是容忍的适度放任之下，比特币的小日子过得挺滋润。从好的方面来说，比特币交易的监管成本几乎可忽略不计，尽管在纽约等地这种情况开始有所改变。
On the down-side, this regulatory grey-zone has meant a lot of companies and institutional investors are afraid to use, or even to buy, bitcoin. So increasing regulations could actually boost bitcoin demand, as those regulated users become unafraid to play.
不好的方面，这种监管的灰色地带也导致很多企业和机构投资者不敢使用比特币甚至不敢买比特币。因此，监管力度的加强也有可能促进对比特币的需求，因那些受监管的用户可以毫无顾虑地参与其中。
As for what happens in the future, countries are gradually drifting into 2 camps: broadly enthusiastic (Japan, Dubai, Taiwan, Switzerland), broadly skeptical (China, Korea), with the USA and European Union still lurching between the camps.
至于未来会发生什么，各国会逐渐分成两个阵营：日本、迪拜、台湾、瑞士会伸开双臂拥抱比特币，中国、韩国会拒之门外，美国和欧盟仍举棋不定。
Crypto’s: only for adrenaline junkies
虚拟货币只是冒险者的乐园
Now, given how much savings dominate money use, the elephant in the room is would you feel comfortable keeping your life savings in bitcoin.
鉴于在货币使用需求中有极高的占比来自存款，有个问题需要挑明了问：如果换作是你，你会把一生的积蓄都放在比特币里面吗？
As we mentioned, the key point here is how it’s price will hold up, meaning will demand grow faster than supply. While bitcoin has knocked the socks off dollars or even gold, rising 800% in the past year alone, even this soaring growth has come with the major downside that bitcoin also fluctuates a lot — easily up or down 50% in a month.
前面提到，很关键的一点在于一个货币的价格能否稳步上扬，也就是对该货币的需求大于供给。说到价格上扬，美元甚至黄金也比不上比特币，仅去年一年比特币的价格就上涨了800%，虽然行情暴涨的同时也不乏大幅调整，比特币的价格在一个月以内涨跌50%均易如反掌。
This makes it a terrible savings vehicle for the rich people and institutions that matter in savings demand, even if it also makes bitcoin such an exciting speculative investment. For now I certainly wouldn’t put more than 10% or 20% of a portfolio in cryptocurrencies, given that volatility.
对于富人和机构等对存款需求颇为在意的投资者来说，大涨大跌导致比特币不适合用来存款，尽管这个特点让比特币成为了疯狂投机的标的。如果是我的话，我现在肯定不敢把超过全部身家的一成或两成放在比特币身上，那波动率也太酸爽了。
Ok, my goal here was to give an overview of where a cryptocurrency shines — what kinds of transaction it’s good for, which ones it’s not, and how those impact its price.
结尾，本文的宗旨是总结一下比特币最能发挥作用的场合，比如哪些交易场景适合，哪些不适合以及比特币的价格如何受到这些因素的影响。